PREDICTION-MARKET ARBITRAGE

A price gap matters only when the markets, execution and settlement align

HYY-Bot treats cross-platform arbitrage as a sequence of verifiable checks rather than a promise of risk-free profit.

Verify market equivalence first

Similar market titles may use different reference sources, cut-off times, baseline definitions or exceptional-settlement rules. The bot must compare these properties before evaluating prices.

Measure executable combined cost

A combined-cost check should use expected average fill prices, platform fees, slippage allowance and a safety margin. The best displayed ask is not enough when the required quantity spans several levels.

Track actual fills

Submitting two orders does not mean both orders filled. Actual quantities, average prices, fees and remaining orders determine whether the position is balanced or exposed.

Settlement can still differ

Cross-platform filtering reduces risk but cannot remove rule changes, delayed data, invalid-market handling or different oracle outcomes. Automated tools do not guarantee profit.